Cross Lanes, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

252
FXUS61 KRLX 250710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
310 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing chances for showers and storms into Friday.
Remaining unsettled through Saturday. High pressure returns
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 308 AM Friday...

Showers should continue to drift north of the area into this morning
before a brief lull in activity is expected. Shower and thunderstorm
activity will begin to increase again by this afternoon as pre-
frontal trough ahead of an approaching cold front nudges through the
area, bringing chances for showers/storms through Friday night.
Relatively weak flow aloft and somewhat metered instability as a
result of poor heating due to antecedent rainfall/cloud cover will
likely limit the overall severe weather threat today, but it would
not be impossible to see a strong storm or two, namely in the form
of strong/damaging winds as storms collapse.

Otherwise, there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and
tonight, given slow storm motion and likely repeated rainfall across
many locations, this could lead to some minor flooding issues into
early Saturday, with generally around a half inch to an inch of rain
expected for most of the area, with some higher totals approaching
1.5" across the mountains. Locally higher totals are likely in
areas that see thunderstorms and repeated instances of
shower/storm activity.

Temperatures today will be a bit cooler given our lingering cloud
deck with high temperatures generally in the low to mid 70`s across
the lowlands and upper 50`s to mid 60`s in the mountains. There
could be areas that see a slight nudge upward in terms of
temperatures, dependent on where any cloud breaks form today that
lead to more efficient heating, but even then should not stray too
far from forecasted highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

With frontal boundary north of the area, southwest flow will bring
warm and moist airmass into our area, allowing for slow-moving
diurnal heat related convection Friday afternoon and evening.
PWATs about 1.4 inches (+2SD from climatology) are indicative of
abundant moisture. The passage of an H500 trough may provide
enough forcing to produce widespread precipitation into Friday
night. WPC maintains most of the area under a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall.

Precipitation should diminish in coverage and intensity overnight
Friday. However, a cold front arrives early Saturday morning to
bring additional precipitation.

Precipitation will gradually taper off from northwest to southeast
as high pressure builds in behind the front Saturday afternoon and
evening. Drier conditions are then expected for Saturday night.

For Friday, abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will allow high
temperatures to reach the upper 70s across the lowlands, ranging
into the upper 50s northeast mountains. Cooler temperatures, closer
to normal values, are expected for Saturday behind the cold
front, with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 60s across
the lowlands, and raging into the upper 50s northeast mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Thursday...

Strong high pressure builds from the northwest on Sunday, to provide
dry weather conditions through Monday. Although near normal temperatures
are expected Sunday, plenty of sunshine and weak flow will allow for
a warm up Monday.

Guidance is struggling with the arrival of the next cold front late
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Accepted general guidance with
chance PoPs for now. Winds will become strong and gusty as the
front approaches the area on Tuesday.

Temperatures by mid week will highly depend of the passing systems
as they provide cloudiness and cooling showers affecting highs
and lows.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 138 AM Friday...

Scattered showers continue across primarily the western half of
our area, with the risk for thunderstorms diminishing given loss
of instability. Showers will continue to develop across the area
overnight and into Friday and gradually increase in coverage by
the afternoon, with thunderstorms once again becoming possible
Friday afternoon into Friday night. These will likely result in
MVFR CIGs/VISBYs for most, if not all terminals, at times with
IFR/LIFR conditions possible in the heaviest showers/storms,
with IFR CIGs expected for most terminals late in the period.

Winds will be light and variable overnight, with higher
gusts/erratic direction possible in any showers/isolated storms.
Otherwise, winds will gradually increase this afternoon with
south turning southwest gusts of 10 to 20 mph expected area-
wide, with higher gusts possible in the mountains and near BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/25/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in showers and storms through Saturday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/FK
NEAR TERM...28
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...28